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Prediction of Instability in Distal Radius Fractures – Mackenney et al (JBJS 2006)

  • Prospective collection of data on 4000 distal radial fractures collected at the Edinburgh Orthopaedic Trauma Unit
  • Outcome measures included radiographic measurements at 1 week and 6 weeks
  • Results:
    • Predictors of early and late instability were patient age, metaphyseal comminution, and ulnar variance.
    • Minimally displaced fractures only had a 10% chance of later instability
    • Displaced fractures had 43% chance of early instability and 47% chance of late instability
  • Discussion: most important predictive factors were age of the patient, comminution, and position of fracture (displacement) at presentation

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